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Annual retail sales rose in January at the fastest rate since
May 2000, according to a survey published today (Thursday) by
the Confederation of British Industry. Retailers had expected
a slowdown in growth. They now expect annual sales to grow a
little less strongly in February.
The CBI's monthly Distributive Trades Survey, carried out from
4 to 23 January, shows 57 per cent of retailers reporting a
rise in sales volumes compared to a year ago while 21 per cent
reported a fall. This gives a balance of 36 per cent, which
compares with 16 per cent in December and 13 per cent in November.
The balance for January 2000 was 29 per cent.
The three-month moving average, which smooths out month-to-month
fluctuations in sales volumes, has risen to the highest level
since July 2000. But underlying volume growth remains lower
than the levels for the first half of 2000.
Retailers expect sales to increase more moderately in the year
to February. Fifty-two per cent of retailers expect sales to
go up, while 20 per cent expect them to come down. This gives
a balance of 32 per cent and compares with an expectation of
21 per cent for February last year.
Stores reporting the fastest increase in annual sales volumes
were those selling footwear and leather, durable household goods,
books and stationery, furniture and carpets. Firms selling clothing,
groceries, hardware and DIY goods reported smaller increases.
Specialist food sales were unchanged while chemists reported
a moderate fall. Off-licences experienced a sharp fall.
Alastair Eperon, Chairman of the Distributive Trades Panel,
said: "Today's survey shows that shoe shops, furniture
and carpets stores and clothes shops were among those to benefit
from the January sales, following disappointing sales in December.
However, trade over the whole Christmas and New Year period
was less robust than a year ago. Therefore these results do
not alter our view that a small cut in interest rates next week
would not put the Government's inflation target at risk."
Retailers reported that sales volumes in January were well
above average for the time of year, to the greatest extent since
February 2000. They expect this to continue during February.
Orders placed on suppliers rose in the year to January despite
expectations of little change in orders. Stock levels were run
down sharply during January to the lowest level in relation
to expected demand since the survey began in 1983. Stocks are
expected to remain at a low level over the coming month.
Wholesalers said sales volumes grew more quickly in the year
to January following a slowdown in growth in December. The three-monthly
average has also risen, indicating that the underlying trend
in sales growth is now close to the levels reported last Autumn.
Sales volumes are expected to rise much more slowly in the year
to February.
Motor traders reported a further pick-up in annual sales volumes
in January, the first survey in which substantial growth has
been reported since September 1999. Sales are expected to increase
a little more slowly in the year to February.
Further Details & Contacts.
The Distributive Trades Survey (DTS) covers over 20,000 outlets
of firms responsible for 40 per cent of employment in retailing.
It includes measures of sales volumes on a monthly basis and
compares them with a year earlier to indicate trends in activity
across the distributive trades. It was first introduced in 1983
and the retail results form the UK component of the EC survey
of retail trades.
For the latest press releases please visit : www.cbi.org.uk/
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